The industry’s major tracking services are finding it a little difficult to get a read on Black Panther.
That’s not to say the film is in trouble – far from it, in fact – simply that the positive reviews and online buzz have had a marked effect on the box office projections. Two weeks ago, for instance, figures relayed by The Hollywood Reporter claimed Black Panther would open to around $120 million at the domestic box office, though that forecast was quickly adjusted to $150 million once the official review embargo had lifted.
Well, it seems the good news just keeps coming for Marvel Studios, as NRG’s prediction has been bumped up again – this time all the way to $165 million, which would surely put Black Panther in the company of greatness. You know, if it wasn’t there already.
A four-day opening weekend gross of $165 million would also allow Black Panther to blow past 20th Century Fox’s Deadpool, which became February’s biggest ever opening with $132 million. Should that final tally hold true, the Ryan Coogler actioner will then be crowned as Marvel’s best-performing debut solo film in its first week of release, and the fifth biggest opening weekend the MCU has ever seen – falling just behind Captain America: Civil War ($179.1) and Iron Man 3 ($174.1 million).
The long-range forecast is just as impressive, as Black Panther is said to be eyeing a $400 million gross in North America alone. That would place it higher than even Thor: Ragnarok ($314 million) and Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334 million), and bring it closer in line with the genre’s crème de la crème: Sam Raimi’s original Spider-Man ($403.7 million), Shane Black’s Iron Man 3 ($409 million), and Patty Jenkins’ Wonder Woman ($412.5 million).
Like we said, the good news just keeps on coming for Marvel Studios.