Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh in “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara in “Carol”
Rachel McAdams in “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander in “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet in “Steve Jobs”
The path to the Supporting Actress Oscar has been a rather strange one in that Alicia Vikander had been dominating the critics’ awards, but for her performance in Ex Machina, not The Danish Girl. However, she ended up winning the Critics Choice and, more importantly, the Screen Actors Guild award for her performance in the latter, which makes her the most likely winner of the category (the BAFTA doesn’t count this year as Vikander’s performance in The Danish Girl was placed in lead instead of supporting).
I wouldn’t count out Kate Winslet completely after winning the Golden Globe, but it’s the SAG award that’s the biggest indicator, as many of the SAG members are also members of the Academy, so it’s unwise to bet against it.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy in “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo in “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance in “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone in “Creed”
Here we have what has been the craziest category of the entire awards season. Sylvester Stallone had been the most popular pick throughout the critics’ awards, though Mark Rylance’s wins were from bigger groups. Stallone won the Critics Choice and the Golden Globe, but failed to nab a SAG nomination. Idris Elba won the SAG award, but failed to nab an Oscar nod. In fact, the only two SAG nominees that managed to get the subsequent Oscar nomination were Mark Rylance and Christian Bale, and as you probably know, the eventual Oscar winner is almost always nominated by SAG first.
There have been exceptions, but they are all explained by either an actor switching from lead to supporting (or vice-versa) or screeners not going out on time. To put it simply, there hasn’t been an instance of an actor failing to get a SAG nomination (when having every opportunity to get one) and then going on to win an Oscar.
True, Stallone could make history on the big night, as SAG certainly had every opportunity to see Creed (a late November release that was screening weeks prior), but it seems safer to assume that the rule won’t be broken, leaving us with Rylance and Bale.
Between the two, Bale has won absolutely nothing throughout the entire awards season, while, again, Rylance has won a number of critics’ awards, and most recently, the BAFTA. Because of this, and the fact that the BAFTA has matched the Oscar most of the time in the last decade (7/10, with one mismatch being explained by a film not being seen in time and another by the fact that BAFTA made a better choice), I would guess Rylance as the most likely victor here, though this easily remains the most uncertain of the acting categories this year.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett in “Carol”
Brie Larson in “Room”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling in “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan in “Brooklyn”
As far as Best Actress goes, Brie Larson pretty much has the category wrapped up for her outstanding performance in Room. She was a very popular choice throughout the critics’ awards, and went on to claim the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild award, so there’s very little doubt that she will go on to win the Oscar as well.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston in “Trumbo”
Matt Damon in “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio in “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbender in “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Danish Girl”
Yes, it’s finally going to happen. On his fifth try, Leonardo DiCaprio will finally earn his elusive acting Oscar for his brilliant performance in The Revenant. Like Larson, DiCaprio has been the most popular choice by far throughout the critics’ awards, and has also won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Screen Actors Guild award, leaving him as the prime choice to take the category.